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Open Journal Systems. Journal Help. User Username Password Remember me. Current Issue. Font Size. Keywords Earthquake, hazard, vulnerability, fragile. Full Text: PDF. Provisional Population Total. Hooker, J. Himalayan Journals, Vol. I and II. Gazetteer of Sikkim. Himalayan fault lines. Frontline Roychoudhury, A. Large Visitor Globe. Construction of computational simulations of dynamic earthquake ruptures to help constrain stress levels along major faults, to help explain the heat-flow paradox, and to help us understand extreme slip localization, the dynamics of self-healing ruptures, and the potential for repeated slip on faults during earthquakes.

Development of computational earthquake-cycle simulators that can incorporate realistic models of fault-resistance evolution during earthquake cycles and the wave-propagation that occurs during seismic events. Structure and evolution of fault zones and systems: relation to earthquake physics. Detailed geologic, seismic, geodetic, and hydrologic investigations of fault complexities at Special Fault Study Areas and other important regions. Investigations of along-strike variations in fault roughness and complexity including slip rate and geometry as well as the degree of localization and damage perpendicular to the fault.

We will also extend the CFM to include spatial uncertainties and stochastic descriptions of fault heterogeneity. Use of special fault study areas to model stress heterogeneities both deterministically and stochastically. We will integrate the results of these special studies into the CSM. Use of earthquake and earthquake-cycle simulators and other modeling tools, together with the CFM and CSM, to quantify how large-scale fault system complexities govern the probabilities of large earthquakes and rupture sequences.

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Causes and effects of transient deformations: slow slip events and tectonic tremor. Improvement of detection and mapping of the distribution of tremor across southern California by applying better instrumentation and signal-processing techniques to data collected in the special study areas, such as those outlined in the proposal. Application of geodetic detectors to the search for aseismic transients across southern California. We will use the CGM as the time-dependent geodetic reference frame for detecting geodetic anomalies.

Collaboration with rock mechanics laboratories on laboratory experiments to understand the mechanisms of slow slip and tremor. Development of physics-based models of slow slip and tectonic tremor. We will constrain these models using features of tremor occurrence and its relationship to seismicity, geodetic deformation, and tectonic environment, as well as laboratory data.

Use of physics-based models to understand how slow slip events and tremor activity affect earthquake probabilities in Southern California. We will extend current methods of full-3D tomography to include ambient-noise data and to estimate seismic attenuation, and we will develop methods for estimating and representing CVM uncertainties.

Modeling of earthquake ruptures that includes realistic dynamic weakening mechanisms, off-fault non-elastic deformation, and is constrained by source inversions. The priority is to produce physically consistent rupture models for broadband ground motion simulations of hazard-scale ruptures, such as ruptures envisioned in UCERF3. An important issue is how to treat multiscale processes; for example, might off-fault plasticity regularize the Lorentzian scale collapse associated with strong dynamic weakening?

Observational Studies

If not, how might adaptive meshing strategies be most effectively used to make full-physics simulations feasible? We will test the stochastic models with seismic and borehole logging data and evaluate their transportability to regions of comparable geology. Measurement of earthquakes with unprecedented station density using emerging sensor technologies e. Collaboration with the engineering community in validation of ground motion simulations.

Earthquake Research and Analysis: Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning - Google Books

We will establish confidence in the simulation-based predictions by continuing to work with engineers in validating the simulations against empirical attenuation models and exploring coherency and other standard engineering measures of ground motion properties. The research objectives outlined below are priorities for SCEC3. They carry the expectation of substantial and measurable success during the coming year.

In this context, success includes progress in building or maintaining a sustained effort to reach a long-term goal. There are four major research areas with the headings A, B, C and D with subheadings given by numbers. The front page of the proposal should specifically identify subheadings that will be addressed by the proposed research. Define slip rates and earthquake history of southern San Andreas Fault system for the last years.

Develop a system-level deformation and stress-evolution model. Statistical analysis and mapping of seismicity and source parameters with an emphasis on their relation to known faults. Develop a geodetic network processing system that will detect anomalous strain transients.

Test scientific prediction hypotheses against reference models to understand the physical basis of earthquake predictability. Determine the origin, evolution and implications of on- and off-fault damage.

Physical Vulnerability in Earthquake Risk Assessment

Assess predictability of rupture extent and direction on major faults. Develop statistical descriptions of heterogeneities e. Constrain absolute stress and understand the nature of interaction between the faulted upper crust, the ductile crust and mantle, and how geologic history helps to resolve the current physical properties of the system. Predict broadband ground motions for a comprehensive set of large scenario earthquakes. Develop kinematic and dynamic rupture representations consistent with seismic, geodetic, and geologic observations.


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